Our Insight

10 points from Andy Sawford on the result and what happens next

9 June 2017

1. The next government will be Conservative led, supported by the Democratic Unionist Party.
2. Theresa May is continuing as Prime Minister.  Her future is uncertain – remember that the Conservatives are famously ruthless at dispatching their Leaders.    Ruth Davidson is the Conservative’s star of this election, with 13 gains in Scotland.
3. Jeremy Corbyn will continue as Labour leader, strengthened by Labour’s better than expected performance, making gains across the country.  Canterbury is Labour for the first time in a hundred years and Labour have gained Kensington.   Expect more of the ‘let Corbyn be Corbyn’ strategy, with Labour doubling down on more radical policies.
4. The SNP had a bad night, although coming from a high base. The Liberal Democrats had an ok result, gaining four seats overall, but not the breakthrough they were hoping for, and Nick Clegg is out of Parliament.   UKIP’s vote share crashed and Paul Nuttal has resigned, with a Nigel Farage comeback possible.   Caroline Lucas was returned for the Greens. Plaid gained a seat in Wales.
5. Some Ministers have lost their seats and there will be a major reshuffle of the Government and the opposition frontbench.  There will therefore be many new Ministers and Shadow’s to engage with.
6. Policy is in flux.  The Conservative manifesto will not be implemented in full, partly because of the Parliamentary arithmetic, and partly because that manifesto itself is seen as being a contributor to the Conservative’s loss.
7. Brexit will happen, but not fully as planned by Theresa May when she triggered Article 50.  The timetable remains the same in terms of the end date, despite the delay in getting the negotiations started.
8. Parliament will be more important, with every vote on a knife edge in the Commons, and the Lords playing a stronger role.
9. There could be another General Election this year. It would be very likely, were it not for the Brexit timetable.
10. Public Affairs support is more important than ever in these extraordinary times – Connect are here to help.

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The ‘dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again…’

9 June 2017

Sir Winston Churchill, February 16, 1922:

“The whole map of Europe has been changed … but as the deluge subsides and the waters fall short we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.” Read more

Who will oppose a Conservative majority? Steve Barwick counts the ways…

22 May 2017

The opinion polls are narrowing but even allowing for a 3% error margin in Labour’s favour (although historically they have under-recorded Conservative Party support) Theresa May on these figures will secure a majority in the House of Commons. In fact, the Conservatives only need to win 45 seats to have a ‘landslide’ – a total of 375 seats, more than 100 more than all the other political parties put together. The question on everyone’s lips – apart from whether the polls will continue to narrow – is, where will the opposition come from if she is triumphant on June 8^th? Read more

Tactical Voting, the Progressive Alliance and wasted votes

10 May 2017

For most people the Progressive Alliance is an abstract concept at best, consigned to the fringes of party conferences. Not so for the political anoraks among us, particularly those on the left. For many of us it has become an issue of urgent focus since the disappointment of the 2015 general election, and given greater prominence since by senior figures from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party. Read more

Local Elections in Scotland: Much more than Brexit and the Scottish constitutional question

4 May 2017

Important local government elections are taking place across the UK today.  In Scotland, the results will tell us much about the state of the parties and views on our ever-present constitutional question. Read more

8th June is not the only important election

24 April 2017

Six Metro Mayors, serving ten million people, will be elected on 4th May. Read more

2017 Budget

3 March 2017

This year’s Budget takes place just days before the Prime Minister is expected to trigger Article 50, starting the process of Britain leaving the European Union. Read more

MPs must come clean about who they employ using public money

6 February 2017

This article was first published by The Times Red Box.

Two recent stories have highlighted the lack of transparency and accountability over who politicians employ in their offices. Read more

Schools Week: Three basic guidelines for effective consultation

27 January 2017

Consultation is never a silver bullet to securing planning permission, but it is necessary and de-risks the process, says Louise Page-Jennings. Read more

Connect scoops national award for engagement at party conferences

9 December 2016

Connect Communications has won the prestigious Party Conference Fringe Event of the Year at the Public Affairs Awards 2016 for the Fraud Fringe. Read more