10 points from Andy Sawford on the result and what happens next

  1. The next government will be Conservative led, supported by the Democratic Unionist Party.
  2. Theresa May is continuing as Prime Minister.  Her future is uncertain – remember that the Conservatives are famously ruthless at dispatching their Leaders.    Ruth Davidson is the Conservative’s star of this election, with 13 gains in Scotland.
  3. Jeremy Corbyn will continue as Labour leader, strengthened by Labour’s better than expected performance, making gains across the country.  Canterbury is Labour for the first time in a hundred years and Labour have gained Kensington.   Expect more of the ‘let Corbyn be Corbyn’ strategy, with Labour doubling down on more radical policies.
  4. The SNP had a bad night, although coming from a high base. The Liberal Democrats had an ok result, gaining four seats overall, but not the breakthrough they were hoping for, and Nick Clegg is out of Parliament.   UKIP’s vote share crashed and Paul Nuttal has resigned, with a Nigel Farage comeback possible.   Caroline Lucas was returned for the Greens. Plaid gained a seat in Wales.
  5. Some Ministers have lost their seats and there will be a major reshuffle of the Government and the opposition frontbench.  There will therefore be many new Ministers and Shadow’s to engage with.
  6. Policy is in flux.  The Conservative manifesto will not be implemented in full, partly because of the Parliamentary arithmetic, and partly because that manifesto itself is seen as being a contributor to the Conservative’s loss.
  7. Brexit will happen, but not fully as planned by Theresa May when she triggered Article 50.  The timetable remains the same in terms of the end date, despite the delay in getting the negotiations started.
  8. Parliament will be more important, with every vote on a knife edge in the Commons, and the Lords playing a stronger role.
  9. There could be another General Election this year. It would be very likely, were it not for the Brexit timetable.
  10. Public Affairs support is more important than ever in these extraordinary times – Connect are here to help.

 


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Andy Sawford